As the big fight gets set to begin, the Government is making a last minute bid to reach out to the Opposition, admitting it doesn't have the two third majority it needs to move for a constitutional amendment granting constitutional status to the Lokpal.
"I am sure that a good Bill - as it is or with whatever modifications - will be passed," said Congress MP Sandeep Dikshit.
But it's the several amendments, which both the BJP and the Left plan to move, could stall easy passage of the Bill.
The BJP plans to move as many as 37 amendments, including -
* enabling provision for setting up state Lokayuktas is against federal structure
* reservation for minorities in selection panel for the Lokpal is unconstitutional
The Left's amendments include:
* The Lokpal should have separate investigation wing
* there should be broad-based selection panel for the Lokpal
In addition, most parties like the RJD, the JD(U) will oppose Section 24, which allows the Speaker and Rajya Sabha Chairman to act against an MP on basis of a Lokpal report even before trial is over. Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh will object to inclusion of Prime Minister and wide policing powers of the Lokpal.
The alliance of the BJP and the Left on the one side and parties like the RJD, Mulayam and even Mayawati on the other, makes it hazardous to make any prediction on whether the Bill will pass through both the Houses. The UPA doesn't have the numbers in the Rajya Sabha, and this fits into the Government's strategy.
The Government hopes that a divided opinion on the Lokpal would stall the Bill. The UPA has the numbers in the Lok Sabha, and so is under pressure to get it passed in the lower House. But in the Rajya Sabha, the UPA is in minority, so the onus of blame, in case bill not passed, would be put on the Opposition by the Government.
The amendments can be moved just after discussion on the Lokpal Bill begins in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha and the amendments need to be put to vote.
If amendments are passed in one House and rejected in another, a joint session needs to be called to decide, which could delay the passage of the Bill further.
Ironically, the Government and the Congress are banking on the support of those very political parties, which opposed the Bill inside Parliament. The Government hopes, the survival instinct of a neta will offer a bailout package.
The likely scenarios in Parliament:
Scenario 1: Bill is passed in Lok Sabha, but defeated in Rajya Sabha where UPA does not have majority.
Special session will have to be called ahead of the Budget session
Scenario 2: Bill is defeated in Lok Sabha itself and falls 'ab initio'.
Verdict: Possible, but not likely
Scenario 3: The BJP and the Left move amendments, which are defeated in Lok Sabha, but passed in Rajya Sabha.
Special session has to be called in February.
Verdict: Likely
Scenario 4: Bill is withdrawn at initial stage because of constitutional problems.
Verdict: Highly improbable
Scenario 5: Bill is passed in both Houses and becomes a law.
Verdict: Possible, but not likely
Posted in: Politics
0 comments:
Post a Comment