News reports of Sonia Gandhi's poor health have brought speculation that Rahul will take over the party leadership in 2012, and may even be Congress's candidate for prime minister at the next general election in 2014.
If that happens, he will have a job on his hands. The current government of Manmohan Singh is in turmoil. It is riven by corruption scandals and a faltering economy and embarrassed by its inability to deliver long-promised economic reforms. In December Jim O'Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist who coined the idea of the BRIC economies, called India the most disappointing of them.
Crucially, the government's efforts to tackle corruption with the so-called Lokpal bill have failed to satisfy Anna Hazare, whose decision to start another fast threatens a repeat of the mass protests of the past summer. The Lokpal bill was first proposed decades ago, and no government has ever taken it this far. But Anna says the proposed law is not tough enough.
The Congress party has failed to embrace Anna's message. Rahul still has time to correct that. He could make the powerful case that the best way to fight corruption is to remove the opportunities for civil servants and politicians to profit from bureaucratic complexity. That would mean rolling back state control, breaking up monopolies and pursuing other reforms -- rather than backtracking on promises to open sectors like retailing to foreign competition, as Singh's government did recently.
A more determined push to open up the Indian economy might not be something the socialist Mahatma would have readily endorsed. But it's a course that could benefit from Anna Hazare's momentum, attract investment and boost growth -- all while giving Rahul Gandhi his own message.
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